MARKET SUMMARY
Session: MIDDAY | Date: 2026-03-21
U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower on Friday, capping a volatile andBearish week amid escalating geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and a broad repricing of monetary policy expectations.
The session began with modest losses, but pressure intensified after The Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon would deploy three warships and thousands of troops to the Middle East, followed by CBS News reporting Pentagon plans to use ground forces inside Iran. This triggered a sharp risk-off response, with all three major averages posting broad, deep losses: the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,576.36 (−443.96, −0.96%), the S&P 500 settled at 6,508.47 (−100.01, −1.51%), and the Nasdaq Composite ended at 21,647.62 (−443.08, −2.01%). The S&P 500 narrowly held above 6,500—the first close below that level since early September—while both the S&P and Nasdaq plunged further below their 200-day moving averages.
Key drivers included a continuation of oil-driven inflation pressures: WTI crude climbed +2.5% to $98.12/bbl, pushing Treasury yields higher across the curve and intensifying repricing of Fed policy expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns ~25% probability to a December rate hike, and rate cut expectations have been pushed out to late 2027. Geopolitical escalation, combined with sticky inflation signals (including a hotter-than-expected PPI report and revised Fed PCE projections), led to widespread underperformance—especially in rate-sensitive and growth-oriented sectors. Utilities (−4.1%), Real Estate (−3.2%), and Information Technology (−2.2%) led the decline, while only Financials (+0.2%) finished in positive territory, buoyed by strong insurance performers (MRSH +3.26%, AON +2.73%).
The week ended with a -1.9% S&P 500 drop, -2.1% for both the Nasdaq and Dow, reinforcing a bearish macro backdrop where oil volatility, geopolitical risk, and tighter financial conditions dominate sentiment.
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
| Index | Level | Daily Change | % Change |
|——-|——–|————–|———-|
| Dow Jones Industrial Avg. | 45,576.36 | −443.96 | −0.96% |
| S&P 500 | 6,508.47 | −100.01 | −1.51% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 21,647.62 | −443.08 | −2.01% |
| Russell 2000 | — | −2.3% | — |
| S&P Mid Cap 400 | — | −2.2% | — |
Market Breadth (NYSE & Nasdaq):
- NYSE: Advancers: 416 | Decliners: 2,632 | Volume: 4.69B
- Nasdaq: Advancers: 1,139 | Decliners: 3,673 | Volume: 12.06B
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics (2026-03-21):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 568 / 1,099
- Above 40 SMA: 17.04%
- Above 20 SMA: 13%
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Oversold
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SECTOR PERFORMANCE
Ranked by daily performance (from best to worst)
| Sector | Daily Return | Weekly Return | Key Drivers / Notes |
|——–|—————|—————-|———————-|
| Financials | +0.2% | −1.1% | Insurance outperformance (MRSH, AON); banking names held steady; asset managers declined. |
| Utilities | −4.1% | −5.0% (wk) | Highest daily decliner; VST (−12.65%), CEG (−10.90%) led losses. |
| Real Estate | −3.2% | −4.1% (wk) | Pressured by rising 10-yr yields (up 11 bps to 4.39%). |
| Information Technology | −2.2% | −1.9% (wk) | Mega-cap tech and semis under pressure; SMCI −33.32% on China smuggling allegations. |
| Consumer Discretionary | −1.9% | −2.7% (wk) | Retail and auto segments softened; broader growth sensitivity. |
| Communication Services | −1.5% | −1.5% (wk) | Mega-cap pressure; Meta +2.24% (pre-Friday) offset broader weakness. |
| Industrials | −1.44% ATR | −2.2% (wk) | Broad-based underperformance; no standout outperformers. |
| Materials | −2.89% ATR | −4.5% (wk) | Commodity volatility and weaker industrial demand. |
| Health Care | −3.26% ATR | −2.0% (wk, est.) | Rate sensitivity and macro headwinds. |
| Consumer Staples | −2.53% ATR | −4.5% (wk) | Lagged with risk-off sentiment; no defensive safe haven. |
| Energy | 0.0% (flat) | +2.8% (wk) | Gains erased intraday despite WTI +2.5%; only sector up on week. |
Note: WaveFinder ATR (Average True Range) values indicate directionality—e.g., “falling” = declining volatility (bearish trend), “flat” = trending sideways.
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KEY EARNINGS & MOVERS
| Symbol | Price | Daily Change | % Change | Reason |
|——–|——-|—————|———-|——–|
| VST | $146.20 | −$21.17 | −12.65% | Utilities selloff; largest decliner in SPX. |
| CEG | $281.99 | −$34.48 | −10.90% | Utilities selloff; massive double-digit drop. |
| SMCI | $20.53 | −$10.26 | −33.32% | CNBC report: employees charged with smuggling chips to China. |
| MRSH | $176.48 | +$5.57 | +3.26% | Insurance outperformance; top GICS gainer. |
| AON | $325.63 | +$8.64 | +2.73% | Insurance strength offset sector weakness. |
| META | $627.45 | +$13.74 | +2.24% (Mon) | Workforce cuts to offset AI costs (Reuters), Monday’s gain not reversed Friday. |
| FDX | +2% (day) | — | — | Strong Q3 beat (revenue +8.3% YoY); raised guidance. |
| PL | — | — | — | Q4 EPS beat (breakeven vs. loss), revenue +41% YoY, backlog +79% YoY. |
| WDC | $294.97 | −$21.96 | −6.93% | Semiconductor weakness; earlier Monday gain reversed Friday. |
| SNDK | $709.03 | −$63.06 | −8.17% | Semiconductor decline continued Friday; down 8.17% daily. |
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STOCK SPOTLIGHT
Planet Labs (PL) delivered its third consecutive quarterly beat and surged to new all-time highs after reporting Q4 (Jan) results, with EPS breakeven (vs. analyst loss forecast), revenue +41% YoY to $86.8M, and FY27 revenue guidance of $415–$440M (+39% midpoint growth). The strong performance was driven by robust demand from defense and civil government segments amid heightened security needs—reflected in backlog rising to $900M (+79% YoY) and RPO of $852M (+106% YoY). Gross margins declined to 57% (from 65%) as PL invests in AI-enabled geospatial analytics and satellite services infrastructure, with FY27 margin guidance of 50–52%. Despite margin compression, PL delivered fifth consecutive quarter of adj. EBITDA profitability and expects continued EBITDA profitability in FY27. Analysts highlight PL’s evolution into a scaled, strategic Earth intelligence platform—leveraging AI, deep historical data, and sovereign contracts—though margin sustainability remains a key watchpoint.
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BOND MARKET & TREASURIES
U.S. Treasury Yields—Friday Close (2026-03-21):
- 2-Yr: +6 bps to 3.89% (+16 bps wtd)
- 10-Yr: +11 bps to 4.39% (+10 bps wtd)
- 30-Yr: +11 bps to 4.96% (+5 bps wtd)
(3-Yr: 3.91% / 5-Yr: 4.01%)
Key Drivers:
- Sustained inflation concerns from oil spike ($98.12/bbl, +2.5% daily)
- Escalating geopolitical risk in Middle East (Pentagon troop deployment to Iran)
- Three consecutive weeks of Treasury selloff—longest losing streak in 2026
- Fed repricing: No 2026 rate cuts expected; ~25% chance of December hike (CME FedWatch)
- Global spillover: UK 10-yr hit 5.00% (first since 2008); Australia 10-yr topped 5.00% (first since 2011), tightening global financial conditions.
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COMMODITIES
| Commodity | Price | Daily Change | Notes |
|———–|——–|—————-|——-|
| WTI Crude | $98.12/bbl | +$2.41 (+2.5%) | Closed above $98 for first time in 2 weeks; weekly gain ~7% |
| Gold | $4,574.30/oz | −$41.30 (−0.9%) | Under pressure from higher yields and strong USD |
| Copper | $5.37/lb | −$0.11 (−2.0%) | Weak industrial demand signals; China FDI down 5.7% YTD |
| Brent Crude | $106.98/bbl | −$1.66 (−1.5%) | Reversed earlier spike above $111; still volatile amid Strait of Hormuz tensions |
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OVERSEAS MARKETS
- Asia (Mon–Fri): Mixed to down; Nikkei down ~1.2% on oil and FX volatility; USD/JPY rose to 159.31 (+1.0% daily), near BoJ intervention thresholds.
- Europe (Fri): Stoxx 600 closed −1.3%; German DAX underperformed (−1.6%) on industrial weakness and energy cost concerns.
- Key Drivers:
– Oil volatility from Hormuz maritime tensions
– CNY depreciation: USD/CNH +0.5% to 6.9087; Chinese 2026 FDI down 5.7% YTD
– ECB pricing: Markets now expect ECB rate hike by April 2026 (vs. June consensus earlier)
– U.K. fiscal risk: Public sector net borrowing hit £14.30B (vs. £8.70B expected), widening deficit concerns.
Note: Data suggests strong correlation between oil, geopolitical risk, and non-U.S. equity weakness.
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ECONOMIC DATA
No major U.S. economic data released on Friday, 2026-03-21.
Week’s most impactful releases included:
- PPI (MoM): Hotter-than-expected print, reinforcing inflation concerns
- FOMC Decision & SEP Update: Median PCE revised to 2.7% (vs. prior 2.4%), GDP to 2.4% (vs. 2.3%); Fed still expects one rate cut in 2026 (though markets no longer do)
- China February FDI: −5.7% YTD (no change from Jan)
- U.S. dollar index rose 0.4% to 99.64 Friday, narrowing weekly loss to −0.9%
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LOOKING AHEAD
Next Session (Monday, March 24, 2026):
- 10:00 ET: January Construction Spending (prior: +0.3%)
- 13:00 ET: $69B 2-Year Treasury Note Auction (critical test of demand amid rising yields)
Tuesday, March 25:
- 8:30 ET: Revised Q4 Productivity & Unit Labor Costs
- 9:45 ET: Flash March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing & Services PMI
- 13:00 ET: $69B 2-Year Auction results
Wednesday, March 26:
- 10:30 ET: Weekly EIA Crude Inventory (prior: +6.16M)
- 13:00 ET: $70B 5-Year Treasury Note Auction
Thursday, March 27:
- 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (prior: 205K)
- 13:00 ET: $44B 7-Year Treasury Auction
Friday, March 28:
- 10:00 ET: Final March Michigan Consumer Sentiment (prior: 55.5)
Earnings Watch:
- Micron (MU): Report after close on Monday (March 24) — previously up +3.68% Monday pre-close
- FedEx (FDX): Already reported; Q4 guidance implies 6.0–7.5% consolidated revenue growth
Market Focus:
- Oil price trajectory above/below $100
- Treasury auction demand, especially at 2Y
- Geopolitical escalation (Iran troop deployment)
- CME FedWatch repricing — particularly probability of Dec 2026 hike (currently ~25%)