SPY|QQQ Wednesday 4PM 9/18/2024

Overall Market Sentiment:

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

Based on the 30-minute intraday chart for the past 30 days, particularly focusing on the recent 13 bars, SPY has shown notable volume activity and some critical price movements. The ETF opened at 563.14 and had a strong upward movement to touch a high of 568.69, eventually closing at 565.90 on significant volume of 12,255,827 shares.

Over the last 13 bars, we observed:
– Volume: There was a notable decline in volume after the initial spike, with the highest volume being 12,255,827 and the lowest 3,264,384. This suggests diminishing trading interest or consolidation in the short term.
– Moving Averages: The price has been oscillating closely around short-term moving averages, indicating indecision in market sentiment. Given the recent dip and slight recovery, this could hint at a potential consolidation or slight bullish sentiment.
– Price Movement: The ETF briefly dipped to 561.05 but recovered to close higher, showing resilience and potential support at this level.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

QQQ opened the same period at 473.71 and reached a high of 478.83 before closing at 476.75. The volume for this period was 7,798,515 shares.

Over the last 13 bars:
– Volume: A similar pattern to SPY, with diminishing volumes, but a notable spike in the last bar suggesting renewed interest.
– Moving Averages: The QQQ remains above its short-term moving averages, indicating a more bullish sentiment compared to SPY.
– Price Movement: The ETF showed a similar dip and recovery pattern, particularly resilient around the 470.97 mark, suggesting a strong support level.

VXX (Volatility Index ETF):

The VXX opened at 49.10 and fluctuated to a high of 50.00, closing at 49.95 with a significant spike in volume.

Volume Spike: The notable volume on increasing price hints at rising market volatility.
Price Movement: The increase from 47.56 to 50.00 within a short time indicates increased fear or cautious sentiment among investors, which could potentially lead to downward pressure on SPY and QQQ if sustained.

Sector Analysis:

Over the past 30 days, the sector ETFs exhibit various strength and weaknesses:
– Strong Sectors:
– XLC (Communication Services): Showed a significant upward movement with continuous higher highs.
– XLE (Energy): Demonstrated stability and slight upward momentum, likely due to favorable energy market conditions.
– XLU (Utilities): Short-term resilience with minor volatility, indicating defensive play by investors.

Weak Sectors:
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Faced notable sell-off pressures, with lower highs suggesting waning investor confidence.
- XLI (Industrials): Experienced oscillation but trended downward suggesting sector rotation away from industrials.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support Levels: 561.33 (recent intraday low), 560.83 (critical).
Resistance Levels: 568.69 (recent high), 570 (psychological level).

QQQ:

Support Levels: 470.97 (intraday low), 470 (critical).
Resistance Levels: 478.83 (recent high), 480 (psychological level).

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

For both SPY and QQQ, a potential bullish scenario could be driven by:
– Positive Economic Data: Better-than-expected job numbers or GDP growth.
– Strong Earnings Reports: Tech giants posting record profits or outperformance in key sectors.
– Technical Breakout: Breaking above 570 in SPY and 480 in QQQ with sustained volume could trigger further buying interest.

Bearish Scenario:

A potential bearish scenario could be led by:
– Negative Economic News: Poor economic indicators or unexpected negative revisions.
– Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation in geopolitical conflicts affecting investor confidence.
– Technical Breakdown: Falling below 561 in SPY and 470 in QQQ with high volume could result in selling pressure.

Overall Commentary:

The market is showing mixed signals, with pockets of strength in sectors like Communication Services (XLC) and Energy (XLE), while Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Industrials (XLI) show relative weakness. Volatility as indicated by VXX has seen a spike, suggesting market caution. Traders should watch closely for economic data releases and earnings reports in the upcoming days, as these could drive the market in either direction. For SPY and QQQ, key support and resistance levels will be critical in determining the next move. Monitor 561 in SPY and 470 in QQQ as key support zones, and look for potential breakouts above 570 and 480, respectively, for a bullish play.