SPY|QQQ Monday 1PM 9/23/2024

Market Sentiment Analysis

Overall Market Sentiment

SPY (S&P 500 ETF):

30-minute Intraday Chart Analysis for the Past 30 Days with Emphasis on Recent 13 Bars Price Volume Development:

Volume Trend: Over the past 13 bars, there’s been notable fluctuation in volume. The volume surge in the bar at 12:30-13:00 indicates significant market participation.
Moving Averages: The price is hovering around key short-term and intermediate moving averages (e.g., 20-period and 50-period). Recent candles show the price slightly below the short-term moving averages, suggesting mild bearish pressure.
Notable Price Movements: The SPY currently seems to be attempting to hold the support near the 568.25-568.75 level. There’s a lack of strong upwards momentum which may indicate cautious sentiment among traders.

QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF):

30-minute Intraday Chart Analysis for the Past 30 Days with Emphasis on Recent 13 Bars Price Volume Development:

Volume Trend: The volume for QQQ has been consistent with some spikes, particularly noted at the 12:00-12:30 and 12:30-13:00 bars, signaling heightened activity.
Moving Averages: Similar to SPY, the price is navigating near short-term moving averages. Recently, however, it has seen a bit more downward pressure, suggesting a possible correction phase.
Notable Price Movements: Prices faced resistance around the 484.00 level and have been retracting towards support around 481.60. There’s a noticeable short-term bearish sentiment prevailing.

VXX (Volatility Index):

Examination over the past 13 bars:

Significant Spikes/Drops: VXX saw notable movements, particularly at the 11:00-12:00 and 12:00-13:00 intervals, with the price moving from 47.59 to 48.00, a substantial increase.
Impact on SPY and QQQ: A rising VXX may signal increasing market volatility and uncertainty. This generally correlates with potential bearish sentiment for SPY and QQQ, indicating traders are possibly hedging or anticipating market pullbacks.

Sector Analysis:

Over the Past 30 Days Performance:

Strong Sectors:
- XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Notably performing well, breaking higher at key levels, indicating strong consumer spending trends.
- XLK (Technology): Despite recent pullbacks, the sector has shown resilience and is leading its broader market counterparts.
Weak Sectors:
- XLB (Materials): Shown relative weakness, navigating near the lower bounds of its trading range.
- XLRE (Real Estate): Exhibiting underperformance, possibly due to rising interest rate concerns affecting property markets.

Sector Rotation: The data suggests a rotation towards defensive sectors like XLU (Utilities) and XLP (Consumer Staples), indicating caution among investors and a preference for safety.

Key Levels to Watch:

SPY:

Support Levels: ~567.00, ~564.50
Resistance Levels: ~570.15, ~574.00
Critical Levels: A drop below 567 could signal further downside, whereas breaking above 570.15 may suggest new bullish momentum.

QQQ:

Support Levels: ~481.60, ~479.50
Resistance Levels: ~484.00, ~486.30
Critical Levels: Falling below 481.60 could trigger more selling, while surpassing 484.00 could establish renewed buying interest.

Scenarios:

Bullish Scenario:

SPY and QQQ:
– Drivers: Positive economic indicators, improved corporate earnings, and technical breakouts above key resistance levels (570.15 for SPY, 484.00 for QQQ).
– Outcome: May drive another leg higher, with SPY targeting 575.00 and QQQ potentially eyeing 490.00 levels.

Bearish Scenario:

SPY and QQQ:
– Drivers: Deteriorating economic data, heightened geopolitical tensions, or technical breakdowns below critical support levels (567.00 for SPY, 481.60 for QQQ).
– Outcome: Could see both indices falling to lower support levels, SPY towards 564.50 and QQQ towards 479.50 or below.

Overall Commentary:

The market currently exhibits mixed sentiment. SPY and QQQ are teasing support levels with no strong directional bias, whereas sector analysis shows rotation towards defensive sectors. VXX’s heightened activity implies impending volatility which could result in bearish pressure on indexes if not countered by positive catalysts.